Tuesday, May 2, 2023

The Premier League relegation battle- Who will fall short?


 

As the 2022/23 Premier League season is drawing to a close, the fight for survival is one of the best that the division has ever seen with no clubs as of yet confirmed to be dropping down to the Championship with just four games remaining. Six clubs still find themselves looking over their shoulder on whether they will still be in the top flight next season, as the battle promises to be an entertaining end to the season with only five points separating 19th and 15th in the table and three sides all tied on 30 points.


This article will show a deep dive into all the teams battling out to survive showing what their chances are of staying in the Premier League for another season.


Southampton- 24 points.


An eleven year stay in the Premier League could soon be over for bottom club Southampton who sit six points from safety with just four games to go. Ruben Selles men have had a dismal season in the top flight as week by week they have been getting closer to confirmation of relegation. But it is by no means over for the South Coast club after some encouraging performances as of late. They showed that they still have fight in them after they were 3-1 up at then league leaders Arsenal but two late goals condemned the Saints to a draw as the Gunners brought it back to 3-3.


Games are slowly running out for the side with only six wins this season. They next travel to relegation rivals Nottingham Forest for a huge game on Monday night in a fixture that could decide if they have any chance of staying up. Then they have three tough tests with a home game against Fulham, a trip to South Coast rivals Brighton & Hove Albion and then a final game of the season where they host Liverpool.


If results went their way, the Saints would need to win at least two of their games and get a point at least in another match. That win could be difficult to come by as they have not won in nine league games so they will need a massive turn of fortune if they were to stay in the division.


Injuries for Selles to deal with are not as bad as other clubs in and around him. Tino Livramento could make a return from a long term injury whereas Romain Perraud is set to be out for the rest of the season with an ankle injury. Defender Mohammed Salisu is also out with a knock as well as forward Paul Onuachu.


So it only feels a matter of time before Southampton's relegation is confirmed but there is a chance that they defy the odds and stay in the the top flight but they would need to pull off something special in their final four games.



Everton- 29 points.


Fans of Everton could be set to taste relegation for the first time in the clubs history after yet another disappointing season in the top flight. After surviving by four points last season, the Toffees are set for another nail biting end to the season as the club sit 19th but only one point from safety. Despite being 19th in the table, most would agree that Everton have improved ever since Sean Dyche took over from Frank Lampard after gaining some important points to keep in reach with those above them. They kept Leicester City in their grasp on Monday night after playing out a 2-2 draw at the King Power Stadium. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who opened the scoring against the Foxes, could prove to be very important come the end of the season after returning from an injury that kept him out since February.


For a side that have only won once in their last eleven games, the final four games will be crucial on deciding if they leave the Premier League for the first ever time. They first travel to European hopefuls Brighton and then host champions Manchester City before ending the season with a trip to Wolverhampton Wanderers and a home game against Bournemouth. Those final two game could be seen crucial as, although both teams look safe, they will be looked at as games that they can be pick up points in. Those four sides were all teams Everton struggled to beat earlier in the season but under Dyche it could all change.


In that draw with Leicester, captain Seamus Coleman went off with what could be a season ending injury after being on the end of a nasty tackle. The fan favourite joins Andros Townsend, Ruben Vinagre and Ben Godfrey in the treatment room. Dyche will be hoping for no more injuries from now until the end of the season.


The Toffees do have what it takes to reach survival and will need full support from their fans as things can turn toxic very quick. They will be hoping for similar events from when they beat Crystal Palace last season to confirm survival but to do that they need to start picking up wins and scoring more as before the Leicester game, they were the lowest scoring side in the top four leagues in England.



Nottingham Forest- 30 points.


After ending their 23 year Premier League exile last season through the play offs, Nottingham Forest stay in the top flight could be a short one with an instant return to the Championship looming over the Trent. The Reds sit 18th in the table only on goal difference going into the final four matches of the season. It has been a tough season for Steve Cooper's men who have found Premier League life difficult especially away from home after only winning one away game all season. An injury riddled season has made it difficult for Steve Cooper who has been under pressure from the press for a large percentage of the season but Forest owner, Evangelos Marinakis, publicly backed him twice this season.


The final running of the season for Forest could be huge if they perform to high standards. They next host Southampton at the City Ground, in which previously mentioned, is a massive game at the bottom end of the table. They then travel to an under performing Chelsea before hosting title challengers Arsenal and a final day trip to Crystal Palace. Both home games will be crucial for Forest as that is where they perform best and will be hoping for similar events against Arsenal from their last two home games against the Gunners after knocking them out the FA Cup twice since 2018.


It has been a busy season in the treatment room at Forest as they have always seemed to have a large number of injuries. Danilo the most recent casualty from the game against Brentford and he joins a large number of nine players currently side-lined. A positive from the injury department was Ryan Yates returning on Saturday for the 2-1defeat at Brentford which could be very key for the Reds.


The fan base is very divided on whether they will return to the Championship next season as ever since the Liverpool defeat, the Reds have shown a bit more fight. Something they will need to cut out is dropping points from winning positions. In total Cooper's men have dropped 23 points from winning positions, a statistic not good enough for the Premier League but there is reason to be confident for Forest with one of the easier run of games.



Leeds United- 30 points.


After last seasons final day heroics after beating Brentford 2-1 to confirm survival, Leeds United are stuck in the same position of not knowing what league they will be in next season and this time the task looks a whole lot tougher. The side from Yorkshire sit out of the bottom three only on goal difference as it has been another year of frustration for the Elland Road faithful. After their 4-1 defeat at Bournemouth at the weekend, there is set to be a 3rd change in the dugout this season. Javi Gracia is set to depart the club despite only arriving in February and he is set to be replaced by former West Ham United and West Brom manager Sam Allardyce. Leeds have confirmed that director Victor Orta has left the club.


The club brandished as a “mess” by the fans have not got a pretty fixture list to end the season. They next travel to leaders Manchester City then host high flying Newcastle United before finishing off with a trip to West Ham and a home game against Tottenham Hotspur. A tough read for Leeds fans with a difficult end to the season in which some fans have accepted that they will be playing Championship football next season.


If Sam Allardyce does take over he will be without four key players. Luis Sinisterra and Struart Dallas are out for the season whereas Liam Cooper and Tyler Adams are both out injured but could make a return by the end of the season but it is not guaranteed.


It is set to be a very tough end to the season for Leeds due to the fixtures and injuries and the fans not feeling connected to the club they love. Most Premier League fans already have Leeds United down. But can Sam Allardyce turn that sinking ship around? If he is to take over if Gracia does end up departing. There is a chance of survival but they will have to dig deep to sustain their Premier League status.



Leicester City- 30 points.


Just two seasons ago, Leicester City finished one point outside of the Champions League qualification spots. Now just two seasons later the club are fighting to stay in the Premier League after a very poor season in which Brendan Rodgers four year spell as manager came to an end. Now at the helm is former Aston Villa and Norwich manager Dean Smith as he looks to keep the Foxes in the top flight. A tough season for a club that won that won the title in 2016 but  Smith has only been defeated once in his opening four games and that was to Manchester City. With quality players like James Maddison, Youri Tielemans and Harvey Barnes to help pull them through it could still be a tight end to the season.


The draw against Everton would of felt like a missed opportunity for Leicester especially after James Maddison saw his penalty saved at 2-1. The three game unbeaten streak will be look to be extended when Leicester travel to Fulham and then a home game against Liverpool before travelling to Newcastle and hosting West Ham on the final day. Those fixtures won't be seen as easy games with two of the side in the top five also Fulham sitting in 10th and having a good home record.


The injury list at the blue side of the East Midlands is not one to be proud of. Defenders Ricardo Pereira, James Justin, Jonny Evans and Ryan Bertrand are out with forward Kelechi Iheanacho recently joining them with a groin injury. Certainly not the worst injury record but not one that will leave Smith with a smile on his face.


Overall it feels tough to decide if Leicester will be a Premier League club next season with a difficult run of games coming up. Most feel that the quality of players should be able to pull them through but that draw with Everton last night was a missed opportunity to gain some ground on those below them. It will be a tense end of the season for the Foxes but those in Blue will be hoping to have a Premier League logo on the sleeve of their shirt next season.



West Ham United- 34 points.


Most fans seem to think that West Ham United are safe, but with only four points separating them and the bottom three it is all still to play for. A disappointing season for the side who are sill in the UEFA Conference League has seen pressure mount on manager David Moyes after finishing 7th in the league just last season. Goals do not seem difficult to come by at the minute with the Hammers scoring 14 goals in their last five games in all competitions. The defeat at Crystal Palace at the weekend highlighted defensive worries as they were beaten 4-3 by an attacking Palace side.


The side from East London do have a game in hand on those below them, they play Manchester City away on Wednesday night before hosting the other side of Manchester at the London Stadium. A trip to Brentford and a home game to Leeds will be rounded of with a trip to relegation rivals Leicester. In between them games they have a two legged semi final against AZ Allkmaar in the UEFA Conference League. An important end to the season in which they play two relegation rivals in which could decide how the bottom three ends.


West Ham have a good fortune with injuries at the moment. Only Gianluca Scamacca and Kurt Zouma are sidelined, Zouma coming off in the defeat at Palace. If they get an injury to someone like Declan Rice though, it would probably strike fear into the Hammers faithful.


It is in West Ham's hands for whether they survive with that four point gap separating them and the bottom three .It will be a real shock if they go down especially while being in an European competition. One win would realistically be enough for the London side and then they can start planning ahead for next season.



The Premier League race for survival is truly on and it promises to have fans on the edges of their seat. For the fans of those clubs it will be a very nervous few weeks for those as they want to see their sides competing with the very best in the country. In a season in which the relegation battle has been one of the best ever, it leaves the question, who will fall short?

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